Study: High school graduation decline will reduce college apps.
Jenna Nierstedt
Issue date: 4/2/08 Section: News
A multi-state commission projects a recent drop in high school graduates will continue over the next five years and may lead to a declining numbers of college applications, higher education officials said.
After 14 consecutive years of rapid growth in high school graduation rates, the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education's report estimates that beginning with Class of 2009, graduation rates will fall nationally, especially in the Northeast and Midwest. The projections were released March 19 and attribute the drop to graduating members of the "baby boom echo" generation - people born between 1986 and 1990.
Boston University spokesman Colin Riley said a smaller pool of high school graduates will not necessarily lead to a smaller pool of college applicants.
"The view is that the numbers won't be significantly tailing off," he said, adding the Office of Admissions plans to monitor the numbers of applicants and factor them in to its operations. "We are just uncertain at this time what exactly the changes will mean."
A 2004 U.S. Department of Education study projected undergraduate enrollment of full-time students to increase by about 1 million over the next eight years, signaling an impending drop-off in college applications.
"I think you are going to find that the core group of students applying to college is going to continue to apply to your school regardless of what else is happening out there," said Mario Silva-Rosa, director of admissions at Assumption College in Worcester.
Over the next 15 years, the Northeast and Midwest regions, home to more than half of BU's Class of 2011, can expect to see a 13 percent and 7 percent drop in high school graduation rates, respectively, the report states. The South and West, however, will see growth rates of 10 and 5 percent respectively.
"Institutions will have to adjust and reallocate their resources to go to where the students are," Silva-Rosa said. "We need to weather the storm."
Though numbers across the board are declining, the report projected rising numbers of minority graduates. Changing racial and ethnic compositions of high school graduating classes will cause an increase in colleges' diversity coupled with declining numbers of white and black graduates and increasing numbers Hispanic and Asian graduates, according to the report.
With fewer students applying to colleges, acceptance rates may increase which may suggest a decline in a school's competitiveness said Rick Bischoff, director of admissions at the California Institute of Technology.
The shift will not affect Cal Tech, though smaller institutions currently struggling to fill their freshmen classes may have a hard time adjusting to the population shift, he said.
"We are still going to be able to admit good students," Bischoff said. "It won't make us any less of a good institution."
After 14 consecutive years of rapid growth in high school graduation rates, the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education's report estimates that beginning with Class of 2009, graduation rates will fall nationally, especially in the Northeast and Midwest. The projections were released March 19 and attribute the drop to graduating members of the "baby boom echo" generation - people born between 1986 and 1990.
Boston University spokesman Colin Riley said a smaller pool of high school graduates will not necessarily lead to a smaller pool of college applicants.
"The view is that the numbers won't be significantly tailing off," he said, adding the Office of Admissions plans to monitor the numbers of applicants and factor them in to its operations. "We are just uncertain at this time what exactly the changes will mean."
A 2004 U.S. Department of Education study projected undergraduate enrollment of full-time students to increase by about 1 million over the next eight years, signaling an impending drop-off in college applications.
"I think you are going to find that the core group of students applying to college is going to continue to apply to your school regardless of what else is happening out there," said Mario Silva-Rosa, director of admissions at Assumption College in Worcester.
Over the next 15 years, the Northeast and Midwest regions, home to more than half of BU's Class of 2011, can expect to see a 13 percent and 7 percent drop in high school graduation rates, respectively, the report states. The South and West, however, will see growth rates of 10 and 5 percent respectively.
"Institutions will have to adjust and reallocate their resources to go to where the students are," Silva-Rosa said. "We need to weather the storm."
Though numbers across the board are declining, the report projected rising numbers of minority graduates. Changing racial and ethnic compositions of high school graduating classes will cause an increase in colleges' diversity coupled with declining numbers of white and black graduates and increasing numbers Hispanic and Asian graduates, according to the report.
With fewer students applying to colleges, acceptance rates may increase which may suggest a decline in a school's competitiveness said Rick Bischoff, director of admissions at the California Institute of Technology.
The shift will not affect Cal Tech, though smaller institutions currently struggling to fill their freshmen classes may have a hard time adjusting to the population shift, he said.
"We are still going to be able to admit good students," Bischoff said. "It won't make us any less of a good institution."
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